treasury yield october

Current Trends in Mortgage Rates

With the war in Israel and Ukraine, along with drama and uncertainty in US House of Representatives.  How have these events impacted rates?”

Wars (especially wars that may expand dramatically) typically boost demand for “safe haven” investments such as bonds and mortgages.  10-year US Treasury bond yields (the most cited proxy for mortgage rates) dropped roughly .3% as shown on the following chart courtesy of MBSLive.net:

treasury yield october

Those yields hit their recent low (4.536%) the morning of Oct 12th but rose quickly as monthly inflation data was released.  The data showed inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, potentially confirming their recent “higher rates for longer” rhetoric.

Unless you’re clairvoyant, trying to predict future economic and geopolitical events is, at best, guesswork.  Anyone who tells you “rates always drop in the spring”, “rates will drop when we’re closer to next year’s election”, etc is simply guessing.  There’s no benefit in basing the timing on your homebuying decision on unknown future events.  Most veteran loan officers can tell you of clients who’ve opted to wait “until rates just drop a little more” to buy a new home, only to see rates rise.